‘Black Panther’ Looks to Become the Fourth Film to Deliver a $100M+ Second Weekend

After a record-smashing opening last weekend, Disney and Marvel’s Black Panther enters its second weekend looking to become only the fourth film to ever top $100 million in its sophomore frame. Meanwhile, a trio of new wide releases hope they don’t get completely overshadowed as WB and New Line release the R-rated comedy Game Night, Paramount debuts the sci-fi thriller Annihilation and Orion debuts their first theatrical release since relaunching with the modestly budgeted Every Day.

In forecasting Black Panther’s second weekend we’ll begin by using previous films that grossed over $200 million in their opening weekend as our guide. Of the previous four $200M+ openers, Star Wars: The Force Awakens dropped 39.8% in its second weekend, Jurassic World dipped 49%, The Avengers dropped 50.3% and Star Wars: The Last Jedi fell 67.5%. Of the lot, using IMDb page view data we see Black Panther pacing closest to Jurassic World while outperforming The Last Jedi following release.

Added to that detail, Black Panther has been delivering the best daily grosses compared to previous titles in the Marvel Cinematic Universe all week. On top of delivering the largest Monday of all-time among all titles, it also delivered the largest Tuesday and Wednesday among all MCU titles. Additionally, online ticket retailer Fandango.com reports the film is dominating sales once again as we head into the weekend, showing no signs of slowing down. Expect those that missed out on opening weekend and repeat customers to fill cinemas as we are expecting this to be a near-record second weekend.

At this time we’re anticipating a ~41% drop for the three-day, looking at a performance around $120 million, which would be the second largest second weekend ever and put the film’s domestic cume right around $410 million by the end of the day Sunday. Should it hit these marks it would also join Jurassic World as the second fastest to reach $400 million.

Internationally, Black Panther has brought in $213.6 million so far, led by the UK with $30.4 million, followed closely by South Korea with $29.5 million. The film hits theaters in Russia today and will debut in Japan and China in early March.

In second place we expect to find WB’s release of New Line’s Game Night, an R-rated comedy starring Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams, debuting in 3,488 locations. WB is anticipating a three-day debut around $12-14 million, while tracking as of last week was a little more optimistic, suggesting an opening around $14-19 million. While Black Panther is sure to draw most of the attention this weekend, an R-rated comedy shouldn’t be affected quite as much, pushing our expectations more in line with tracking.

Looking at IMDb page view data as a guide, Game Night is performing well alongside the likes of Office Christmas Party ($16.9m opening) and Horrible Bosses 2 ($15.5m 3-day, $22.7m 5-day) as well as dramatically outperforming Fist Fight, which debuted with $12.2 million last February. All that being said, we’re currently looking for a $17 million opening for Game Night with some room on the positive side.

Third place is where things begin to look a little blurry. We expect Sony’s Peter Rabbit to deliver a weekend around $10 million or so, perhaps climbing as high as $11 million, but the question is whether that will be enough to hold off Paramount’s release of Annihilation.

Directed by Alex Garland (Ex Machina) and starring Natalie Portman, Tessa Thompson, Oscar Isaac, Jennifer Jason Leigh and Gina Rodriguez, Annihilation is debuting in a modest, 2,012 locations, which isn’t likely to bolster its chances for a breakout debut. Looking at IMDb page view data shows the film pacing similarly to Garland’s Ex Machina ahead of its wide release, but behind films such as Life, Chappie and Arrival. Paramount is looking for an opening anywhere from $10-12 million for the weekend and we’re coming in just under that number, seeing a debut around $9.3 million for the three-day.

Rounding out the top five is Fifty Shades Freed. Already showing weekend-to-weekend similarities with Fifty Shades Darker, we’re anticipating a 60% drop this weekend and a three-day around $6.9 million as the film’s domestic cume should finish the weekend right around $90 million.

The weekend’s final new wide release is Every Day the first release for the recently relaunched Orion Pictures. Targeting a young female audience, the studio has taken a targeted marketing approach very similar to BH Tilt’s past efforts. Tilt’s approach, however, was hit and miss, though a comparison using IMDb page view data for Tilt’s faith-based release The Resurrectin of Gavin Stone gives Orion’s title an edge.

The studio says an opening around $3+ million would put them in good shape and our analysis is within that range, anticipating a debut around $2.5-3 million.

This weekend’s forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.

Black Panther (4,020 theaters) – $120.0 M
Game Night (3,488 theaters) – $17.0 M
Peter Rabbit (3,707 theaters) – $10.0 M
Annihilation (2,012 theaters) – $9.3 M
Fifty Shades Freed (3,265 theaters) – $6.9 M
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (2,519 theaters) – $5.8 M
The 15:17 to Paris (2,752 theaters) – $4.4 M
The Greatest Showman (1,601 theaters) – $3.8 M
Every Day (1,625 theaters) – $2.8 M
Early Man (2,494 theaters) – $2.2 M

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